Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD) November 2021

Posted: Tuesday December 28 2021

National economic developments

Overview

During the month of November, the national economy maintained its measured pace of recovery, despite the continued spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). In this context, tourism production continued to improve, in a context of sustained growth in the high added value air segment and the modest increase in maritime traffic, as the vaccination efforts progressed. Monetary developments were marked by an accumulation of bank liquidity, despite the reduction in domestic credit, lagging behind the contraction in the deposit base. However, external reserves declined during the month under review, reflecting the seasonal increase in foreign currency outflows by the public sector..

Real sector

Tourism

Initial data suggests that monthly tourism sector activity has maintained its gradual pace of recovery, while continuing to face headwinds due to ongoing global travel restrictions linked to new strains of tourism. the COVID-19 pandemic..

Preliminary data from the Ministry of Tourism (MOT) showed that the total number of visitor arrivals by first port of entry fell to 260,942 in October, up from 7,666 in the corresponding period of 2020, when the borders international organizations have reopened with restrictions. Contributing to this development, air arrivals amounted to 56,875 against only 5,502 the previous year, or 75.8% of arrivals in 2019. In addition, maritime traffic rebounded to 204,067, against 2,164 the last year.

Disaggregated by major market, the total number of arrivals in New Providence fell to 140,581 from just 2,359 a year earlier. At the base of this development, the air and sea segments measured 44,083 and 96,498 respectively. ‘rising to 1,407 and 12,589 respectively. In addition, total traffic to the family islands strengthened to 106,365, from 4,831 the previous year, thanks to gains in the air and sea components to 11,385 and 94,980, respectively.

As the recovery of the cruise segment only started in the second half of 2021, the cumulative result for the year for the total number of arrivals was still down by 30.9%, although well below the reduction of 70.5% recorded in 2020. Air arrivals notably increased by 79.8. %, a reversal from the 73.4% contraction recorded the previous year, with all major markets showing positive movements during the period considered. However, the cruise segment influenced a 61.4% drop in maritime traffic, after a 69.6% drop in 2020.

The most recent data provided by the Nassau Airport Development Company Limited (NAD) revealed that the total number of net domestic passenger departures rose to 79,055 in November, from 9,777 in the corresponding month of 2020. Specifically, departures in the United States went from 68,425 to 7,800 in 2020. the previous year; while departures outside the United States fell to 10,630, compared to 1,977 in 2020. Since the start of the year, traffic abroad has increased by 64.9%, compared with a decrease of 73.1 % Last year. Underpinning this result, US departures increased 83.8%, following a decline of 74.1% the previous year. In contrast, the decline in departures outside the United States moderated to 30.0%, compared to 66.9% in the previous period.

As for the vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA for the month of November, compared to the same period last year, revealed that the total number of nights sold had more than doubled from 39,917 to 95,440. On the basis of this result, occupancy rates for all dwellings and comparable hotels strengthened to 50.7% and 47.9%, against 31.3% and 31, 6% during the corresponding 2020 period. As shown in Chart 1, price metrics showed that on a year-over-year basis, the Average Daily Rate (ADR) for comparable hotel listings increased 11.1% to $ 181.76 and for listings from entire locations, 8.8% to $ 490.95.

Since the start of the year, the total number of nights sold has strengthened by 56.0%, reflecting respective increases in bookings for all lodgings and comparable hotels, of 58.3% and of 38, 9%, respectively.

To read the full text, please download the attached document.