Economic Survey predicts GDP growth of 8 to 8.5 for FY 2022-23
India’s economic growth is expected to remain between 8 and 8.5% in 2022-23, compared to a projected growth of 9.2% for the current financial year and a sharp contraction seen in 2020-21, according to the Economic Survey 2021. -22 tabled in parliament on Monday. “With the vaccination program having covered the bulk of the population, economic momentum picking up and the likely long-term benefits of ongoing supply-side reforms, the Indian economy is well positioned to witness GDP growth of 8.0 to 8.5 percent in 2022-23,” says the annual survey report released ahead of the Union budget.
However, the report presented to parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted the challenges posed by new variants of COVID-19 and uncertainties in the global economy. “The global environment still remains uncertain. At the time of writing, a new wave in the form of the Omicron variant was sweeping the world, inflation had surged in most countries, and the liquidity withdrawal cycle was This is why it is particularly important to look at India’s macroeconomic stability indicators and their ability to provide a buffer against the above tensions,” he said.
Overall, macroeconomic stability indicators suggest India’s economy is well positioned to weather the challenges of 2022-23, he said. One of the reasons why the Indian economy is in a good position is its unique response strategy. Rather than committing to a rigid response in advance, the Indian government has opted to use safety nets for vulnerable sections on the one hand while responding iteratively based on an update. Bayesian information.
This “dumbbell strategy” was discussed in last year’s Economic Survey. One of the main enablers of this flexible and iterative “Agile” approach is the use of eighty High Frequency Indicators (HFI) in an environment of extreme uncertainty. Referring to national income advance estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the survey indicates that India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 9.2% in the fiscal year in course after contracting in 2020-21. This implies that overall economic activity has recovered beyond pre-pandemic levels.
Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the “second wave” in the first quarter was much lower than that suffered during the complete lockdown phase in 2020-21, even if the impact on health was more serious , did he declare. Agriculture and related sectors have been the least affected by the pandemic and the sector is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2021-22 after growing 3.6% the previous year.
Advance estimates suggest that the GVA of industry (including mining and construction) will increase by 11.8% in 2021-22 after contracting by 7% in 2020-21. The service industry has been hardest hit by the pandemic, especially segments that involve human contact. This sector is estimated to grow by 8.2% this fiscal year, following last year’s 8.4% contraction.
Total consumption is estimated to have increased by 7.0% in 2021-22 with significant contributions from government spending. Similarly, gross fixed capital formation has surpassed pre-pandemic levels thanks to increased government spending on infrastructure. Exports of goods and services have been exceptionally strong so far in 2021-22, but imports have also recovered strongly as domestic demand recovers as well as rising international commodity prices. (ANI)
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